Today's Earnings, Wednesday July 29: The Fed Split 9-3, Microsoft Answered the AI Question, Meta Paid Its Bill - and Starbucks Came Back

The week's heaviest day in one number: ten standalone articles. The Fed held rates with three hawkish dissents; Microsoft showed Azure growing 43% against a 39%-40% guide; Meta beat on revenue and missed on profit as expenses surged 55%; Arm entered chip production; Lam guided to a 20% jump; Qualcomm said out loud that chip costs are being passed into prices; and Starbucks posted +4.2% traffic. A full wrap of the day the buying side of AI validated every selling-side report.

By Ilan Abramov5 min read
Today's Earnings, Wednesday July 29: The Fed Split 9-3, Microsoft Answered the AI Question, Meta Paid Its Bill - and Starbucks Came Back

Updated: all of today's reporters and the Fed decision, with links to the ten full articles.

This was the heaviest day of the week, and perhaps of the season: a rate decision with a rare split, two of the technology giants, an entire chip chain - and ten standalone articles. Here is everything, in order of importance.

The Fed: the Rate Did Not Move - the Committee Did

Rates stayed at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote was 9-3: Hammack, Kashkari and Logan sought a hike - the most dissents in the opposite direction since 2016, after a unanimous June. Warsh did not smooth it over: "I asked for a good family fight, and I got one." The statement attributed part of inflation to supply shocks including energy, and included a declarative commitment: "The Committee will deliver price stability." The full analysis.

Microsoft: the Answer to the Week's Question

All week we asked whether the giants' capex cheques convert into revenue. Microsoft answered: Azure grew 43% against a 39%-40% guide - and crossed $100 billion in a fiscal year for the first time. Revenue of $90 billion (+18%) and adjusted EPS of $4.74 against $4.24 expected. Inside the report also sits a one-time $3.2 billion gain on the Anthropic investment - and XBOX impairments on the other side. Full breakdown.

Meta: the Same Story, From the Other Side

Revenue beat ($60.8 billion, +28%) and EPS missed by a full dollar - because expenses surged 55%, including $3.6 billion of one-time charges (legal + severance). The margin fell from 43% to 31%, the capex floor was raised to $130 billion, and long-term debt is already $83.7 billion. But the ad engine is in record shape: impressions +14% and price per ad +12% simultaneously - the AI return, embedded in the price. Full breakdown.

The Chip Chain: Three Reports, One Thread

Lam Research completed the equipment trio: revenue of $6.72 billion (+15% sequentially) and guidance jumping to $8.1 billion - more than 20% in a quarter. Together with KLA (+9%) and Teradyne (+104%), three independent equipment makers are guiding to acceleration at once.

Arm - carrying the week's biggest expected move - posted a record: revenue of $1.29 billion (+22%), EPS above the top of guidance, data-center royalties more than doubling - and demand for the AGI chip, its entry into silicon, doubled within a quarter to $2 billion.

Qualcomm supplied the statement of the week: revenue fell 4% (handsets -20%, automotive +61%) - and the company announced explicitly that the chip industry is experiencing a broad-based rise in input costs - memory, packaging, fabrication - and that it is passing them into product prices. The memory makers' margin is officially becoming inflation.

The Consumer: Two Restaurants, One Test

Starbucks delivered the turnaround report: comps +7.9% led by +4.2% traffic - a fourth consecutive quarter of growth - an adjusted margin surging 430 points to 14.4%, and raised guidance. Revenue fell 1% only because of the China transaction.

Chipotle also showed positive traffic (+1.0%, a second straight quarter) and raised guidance - but profit was flat: beef and freight inflation squeezed the margin from 18.2% to 15.7%.

The takeaway from the pair: the American consumer is physically showing up at both - Chipotle's problem is beef, not demand.

And Robinhood measured that consumer's risk appetite: records everywhere - revenue of $1.31 billion (+32%), volumes +85%, event contracts up tenfold - a week after Seoul showed the other side of appetite like that. Crypto, by the way, plunged 38%.

The Morning Reporters

Vertiv - revenue below consensus but EPS +60%, margin +410 points, and guidance nearly doubling organic growth to 34%-36%. SoFi - records everywhere, 1.1 million new members, and a bank charter worth $712 million a year - with the stock still 46% off its high. Lemonade - premium +32.4% and a 5% LAE ratio against the industry's 9%.

Alongside them in the daily: Boston Scientific (sales of $5.44 billion, +7.5%, at the top of guidance); ADP (a year of +7% revenue and an FY2027 outlook of +9%-11% EPS - a positive labor-market read on a Fed day); Cognizant (revenue +4.5%, financial services +12%, guidance narrowed to 4%-5.5%).

The Day's Bottom Line

This day closed the loop the whole week built.

On Tuesday the suppliers reported - equipment, memory, storage, power - and all showed acceleration. Today the buyers reported, and the answer came from both sides: Microsoft showed the investment converting into revenue (Azure +43%), and Meta showed what it costs (expenses +55%, margin -12 points).

And in the middle, Qualcomm articulated the thread connecting everything: chip costs are rising through the whole chain - and they are being passed into prices. SK hynix's margin is Microsoft's capex, is Qualcomm's cost, is the price of the next phone - and it is the next supply shock the Fed will have to face. In the very statement in which three committee members already asked to raise rates.

Sources: the official results announcements of all covered companies as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Forms 8-K and 6-K) on July 29, 2026, and the official FOMC statement from the Federal Reserve's website; full figures and detailed sources in each of the ten linked articles. Data accurate as of the time of writing. Charts are shown in real time via TradingView. Nothing herein constitutes a forecast, recommendation or advice - see the full disclaimer at the bottom of the page.

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