The trading week now opening concentrates three forces pulling in different directions: peak earnings season on Wall Street, a shortened trading week in Tel Aviv around the Tisha B'Av fast, and a geopolitical backdrop that keeps hovering over the markets. Before we dive into the coming days, it is worth pausing on what the past week left behind - because it explains a large part of the nervousness with which the market enters.
What the Past Week Left Behind
The past week was hard on technology, and above all on growth stocks. IBM crashed by tens of percent after a preliminary announcement, the chip index lost almost 9%, and Netflix traded at a two-year low. On Friday the negative trend in chips continued, but not as a rout - the Nasdaq, down at one point by about 2.5%, trimmed the decline and closed down about 1.4%. In other words: there are sellers, but there are also bids coming in on the dips.
What is important to internalize is not just the numbers, but the dynamics behind them. The indices traded close to the peak, and yet volatility was high - and that is exactly the structural risk worth knowing. When positions are crowded and almost everyone is invested in the same AI story, when leverage levels in the market are high (margin, leveraged ETFs, options), and when algorithmic trading systems react quickly - any small catalyst can ignite a wave of forced position-closing, which amplifies the move and creates sharp "air pockets" even when the broad index is high. Goldman Sachs even warned recently of a "debt tsunami" in the AI industry: companies leveraging debt at a pace credit struggles to absorb, while the window to prove the investments pay for themselves keeps narrowing.
A living example that not every hot story stays expensive over time came from the SpaceX IPO (SPCX). The stock, which went public on June 12 at $135 in one of the largest IPOs ever and even touched a market value of over $2.6 trillion at the peak, already trades around its IPO price and even below it - a retreat of about 40% from the post-IPO peak, and this even after a rapid entry into the Nasdaq 100 index. The pressure comes, among other things, from fear of the release of locked-up shares and from a high valuation. It is a reminder that initial enthusiasm around a familiar name does not guarantee a return.
Earnings Week - a Map, Day by Day
From the packed earnings season I chose the reports that seem to me the most significant, the ones that may set the tone for the markets as a whole. The guiding rule for the entire week is simple: the market reacts less to the result that passed and more to the forward guidance.
Monday (July 20)
- AMC Entertainment (AMC) - the largest cinema chain in the world, and one of the most volatile meme stocks. The report is a window into the physical entertainment industry, but investors will mainly look for signs of improvement in free cash flow and in dealing with the debt burden.
- Domino's Pizza (DPZ) - an excellent barometer for the state of the consumer. The number to be measured is same-store sales growth in the U.S. and worldwide, and the question of whether the model preserves profitability against delivery competition and price pressures.
Tuesday (July 21)
- General Motors (GM) - one of the best indicators of the health of the auto market and the public's buying power. In focus: the profitability of the electric segment under a price war, the pace of gasoline and pickup sales that pump in the cash, and the financing division's figures as a signal of the consumer's willingness to take credit.
- 3M (MMM) - an industrial company with a presence in almost every supply chain, and therefore a good diagnostic for the real economy. The emphasis on organic growth, operating margins and progress in the long-term legal settlements.
Wednesday (July 22) - the Heavy Day
- Google / Alphabet (GOOGL) - after the market close. This is the important report of the week. The market will want proof that the enormous investment in AI infrastructure rolls into the profit line - namely the cloud's growth pace and monetization - against fear of the investment intensity (Capex). I expanded on both sides in a separate piece: Alphabet ahead of the report.
- Tesla (TSLA) - after the close. Expected to be the most volatile of the week. In focus: actual vehicle deliveries, profit margins after the price cuts, the pace of the energy-storage division and any update from Elon Musk on the robotaxi and the cheaper vehicles.
- IBM (IBM) - the full report, two weeks after the preliminary announcement that crushed the stock by more than 20% in its worst trading day since 1987. Wall Street will look for a halt in the software and consulting divisions, and above all will examine whether free cash flow - the basis for the dividend's stability - was hurt.
- ServiceNow (NOW) - after the close. One of the growing players in enterprise AI. The question: how do the AI tools translate into a rise in subscription revenue, and whether the company preserves high operating margins.
- AT&T (T) - a value and dividend stock. Two central figures: the pace of subscriber additions in the saturated mobile market, and the free cash flow that allows servicing the heavy debt.
- GE Vernova (GEV) - an energy giant benefiting from the transition to electricity and from the enormous demand of the data centers. In focus: the order backlog and profitability improvement in the renewables division.
- Philip Morris (PM) - the test is the adoption pace of the smoke-free products (IQOS, ZYN) with their high margins, against the decline of the traditional cigarette market.
Thursday (July 23)
- Intel (INTC) - after the close. A report with direct importance for the Israeli economy as well, since the company is one of the largest employers in local high-tech. In focus: the foundry division's progress and margin improvement. I expanded in a separate piece: Intel - the financial versus the technological.
- American Airlines (AAL) - a snapshot of the tourism season and the state of the mobile consumer. The emphasis on average revenue per seat, managing fuel and wage costs, and the demand outlook for the third quarter.
Friday (July 24)
- Verizon (VZ) - a value and dividend anchor. The markets will examine free cash flow, postpaid subscriber additions, and the effect of the efficiency drive on EPS.
- American Express (AXP) - the reliable barometer for the affluent American consumer. In focus: spending volume on the network and the rate of credit-loss provisions - a first sign of possible cracks in the higher income brackets too.
The Macro Arena in the U.S.
Alongside the reports, several macro data points will help investors understand where the real economy is headed. On Monday the leading-indicators index for June will be published, designed to anticipate growth or slowdown trends in the coming months. On Friday come the durable-goods orders figures, which reveal the scale of company investment in long-term equipment, alongside new-home sales for June - an up-to-date picture of the housing market's resilience under the current interest-rate environment.
The Israeli Market - a Shortened, Fragmented Week
In the local arena, the week combines a shortened schedule with a complex backdrop. After the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange's move to an international trading format (Monday to Friday), and due to its closure on Thursday (July 23) for the Tisha B'Av fast, the local market will operate on only four trading days: Monday to Wednesday, and Friday. The disconnect on Thursday, exactly when Wall Street's earnings season reaches its peak, cuts Tel Aviv off from global trends in real time. The immediate meaning is a drop in liquidity and volumes, and potential for volatility and arbitrage gaps when trading reopens on Friday.
In the background operate two uncertainty factors the markets are pricing. The first, the security arena in the north: alongside an initial framework agreement under American mediation, tension on the ground remains high, and the markets are beginning to price the budgetary cost of the multi-year reconstruction program for the north - an expenditure of billions of shekels that could deepen the deficit and pressure yields. The second, political uncertainty around the coalition's stability following the High Court's decision on the conscription law. Beyond the substantive questions themselves, from the market's perspective this is a risk factor: Israel's CDS indices (reflecting the risk premium on government debt in international markets) and foreign investors track the level of governmental stability, understanding that prolonged uncertainty could affect the credit rating and foreign capital's appetite.
The Hormuz and Energy Cloud
Above everything hovers a geopolitical cloud that has almost become routine. The tension between the U.S. and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz and localized exchanges of fire in the region raise fear of disruptions to maritime trade routes. The diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran are open at this stage, but any further escalation could spike oil and commodity prices - a jump that would quickly roll into renewed inflation pressures, and make it harder for central banks to continue the rate-cutting trend. This is exactly the kind of risk that is hard to price in advance, and therefore worth knowing.
The Bottom Line - Two Readings of the Same Week
How to read the week
Facing the same data stand two readings. The cautious reading points to full valuations, high leverage levels and the fear that the AI investments have yet to prove a return - a "house of cards" risk if growth slows. The optimistic reading points to real demand for AI infrastructure, impressive cloud growth and strong cash flows that keep streaming. The week will not decide who is right for the long term - but it will give an important indication to each side.
I avoid betting on direction. What is true is that a week like this is a nice reminder that the market is an expectations machine: the reports will not only recount what was, they will shape the mood for the coming months. The real challenge this week is not to guess the outcome of this or that report, but to filter the background noise - the geopolitics, the politics, the daily volatility - and identify beneath them the trends that will really lead the second half of the year. In a week this packed, the investor's discipline is tested no less than the numbers.
Sources: the reporting dates are based on the earnings calendars and the companies' sites (ServiceNow's report date was confirmed from the company's announcement), accurate as of the time of writing. The dates are scheduled and may change. The charts are shown in real time via TradingView. Nothing herein constitutes a forecast, recommendation or advice - see the full disclaimer at the bottom of the page.