The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets next week, on 15 and 16 September.
The question being asked is whether there will be a rate rise. The honest answer is that nobody knows - but that is not a particularly useful answer, so it is worth looking at what is known: what the committee did last time, what its members wrote in their own projections, and what gets published between now and the meeting.
Every figure here is taken from the Fed's own documents.
Errors or inaccuracies are possible. Spotted something that looks wrong? Write to me and I will correct it.
The First Thing: the July Vote Was Not Unanimous
In the rate statement of 29 July, the Fed left the range at 3.50% to 3.75%.
But the decision was approved by a vote of 9 to 3.
| The three dissenters | |
|---|---|
| Beth Hammack | |
| Neel Kashkari | |
| Lorie Logan |
And the statement's wording is precise: they "preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting".
So the question "is a rise possible" was in effect already answered six weeks ago. Three committee members voted for a rise when inflation was lower, oil was cheaper, and the employment report published since did not yet exist.
The Second Thing: What the Members Themselves Projected
At every second meeting the Fed publishes a dot plot - each participant marks the rate they see as appropriate at the end of each year. The most recent was in June, and this is how it looked for end-2026:
| Rate projected for end-2026 | Participants | What it means from here |
|---|---|---|
| 4.375% | 1 | three rises |
| 4.125% | 5 | two rises |
| 3.875% | 3 | one rise |
| 3.625% | 8 | no change |
| 3.375% | 1 | one cut |
Nine of the eighteen participants projected a higher rate by year-end. Eight projected it staying where it is, and only one projected a cut.
That is an almost even split, and it is precisely why market pricing sits around even. This is not a market guessing - it is a divided committee, and the market is simply reading it correctly.
(Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit an estimate at the June meeting, his first in the role.)
(The two numbers are not in conflict: the committee has twelve voting members, hence the 9 to 3 vote. Projections are submitted by all participants at the meeting - the governors and every regional bank president - hence eighteen.)
The Third Thing: What Gets Published Before the Meeting
The August consumer price index is published on Friday 11 September.
That is the last inflation reading the committee will see before it sits. It arrives four days before the meeting, which is enough time for it to count.
And before it, the August employment report already arrived, showing 162,000 jobs added against a forecast of about 53,000, and revising July from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000.
So the argument that the labour market is cooling weakened considerably last week. What remains open is the price side.
And What the Fed Itself Said in the Statement
The wording is worth reading, because it is not routine:
"Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy."
And then, on a separate line and without qualification:
"The Committee will deliver price stability."
That is an unusually short and unqualified statement in a text that is normally hedged. It promises neither when nor how - but it also leaves no room for reading the target as flexible.
The same statement also says "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace", and that productivity growth and capital investment are "strong". That is a description of an economy that does not need support.
And What the Market Actually Prices
Readings have moved in recent days between about 56% and about 60% for a rise, depending on the pricing venue and the hour. I am not quoting a single number, because it moves during the session and the gaps between venues are real.
What can be read clearly is the bond market. The two-year yield stood at 4.39% on 8 September, per the US Treasury's yield curve.
The midpoint of the current range is 3.625%. So the two-year trades about 77 basis points above the actual policy rate - a gap that does not sit with an expectation of cuts any time soon.
What I Will Be Looking For in the Decision Itself
This meeting comes with updated economic projections - that is, a new dot plot. It is marked as such on the Fed's own calendar.
Which means that even if the rate does not move, there will be new information here: how the nine dots that sat higher moved, and the eight that sat in the middle.
And two further things worth watching:
- The number of dissents. Three was a lot. Four or five would be far more, and even if the decision is to hold, that would be a stronger signal than any wording in the statement.
- Whether the Chair submits an estimate this time. In June he did not. If he does in September, it will be the single dot the whole market looks at.
הזווית שלי
דעה אישית של אילן אברמוב - לא ייעוץ ולא המלצה
What I think matters here is that the question is not "is the market right".
Even odds are not a forecast - they are an admission. When pricing sits near 50%, the market is explicitly saying it does not know, and anyone reading a direction out of that is reading something that is not written there.
And what changed my own sense over recent weeks is not the pricing but the July vote. It is easy to treat dissents as ceremonial noise - they happen, they are recorded, and the decision passes. But three dissents out of twelve voters is not noise. It is a quarter of the room saying out loud that policy is too loose.
And since that vote the data have not weakened - they have strengthened. Employment surprised to the upside, July was revised from a negative month to a positive one, and oil has stayed high because of the Gulf - meaning the supply side, which the Fed names explicitly in its statement, has not improved either.
And that still does not mean there will be a rise. The committee can hold and explain that it is waiting, and that would be entirely reasonable. But anyone assuming a rise is off the table is ignoring three votes already recorded in the minutes.
And the first line I will read next Wednesday is not the rate - it is the dissent line. It says where the committee is going, not just where it is.
(It is important to stress: this is my personal opinion only, and nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to take any action or a rate forecast.)
